A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
