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PHEVs emit nearly five times greater global warming emissions than official figures show, according to a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Official and Real-World Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release just one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel cars, based on research carried out by a advocacy group. This differs significantly with laboratory estimates, which assumed a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Researchers examined data from in-vehicle energy use monitors of eight hundred thousand cars sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than lab figures, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are increasing, while official emissions are decreasing,” said a lead analyst involved in the study. “That discrepancy is widening and creates a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed most of the gap to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles driven in battery power relative to overall distance. The team determined that only 27% of travel was done in EV mode, whereas official assumptions suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when running in EV mode, emission levels were significantly higher than official estimates. This happened because electric motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to function alone, resulting to combustion motors using fossil fuels for nearly one-third of the distance covered in EV mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

According to calculations, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed four large carmaker companies to escape more than €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying compliance with European Union fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs would spend approximately €500 extra annually in operating costs than would be assumed under laboratory conditions.

“The bold claims that manufacturers like to make about their plug-in hybrid cars are clearly way off the mark,” stated a transport expert. “Buyers are being misled into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are helping the environment and cutting costs. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly improved than regular gas and diesel cars in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ production, and running costs.”

Political Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid vehicles have lately been brought back into political discussions as carmakers have lobbied the EU to weaken CO₂ targets. A planned ban on new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the automotive industry and resistance from EU countries with large car industries.

Several high-level officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a possible “compromise” option to introduce in the legislation.

An external energy economics specialist, who was not involved with the study, described the analysis a “very useful contribution” after a long period in which segments of the car sector claimed there was insufficient information to properly assess actual CO2 output.

“These findings demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that the gap between official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is much, much larger than for petrol or diesel vehicles,” they said. “Any regulatory adjustments concerning PHEVs should be implemented with extreme care and in the light of that data.”