Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.