🔗 Share this article

Amid the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. The international community may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.